Stocks for the Long Run, Fifth Edition [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:35
2014 | EPUB + MOBI | 20.51/6.61MB
The stock-investing classic--UPDATED TO HELP YOU WIN IN TODAY'S CHAOTIC GLOBAL ECONOMY
Much has changed since the last edition of Stocks for the Long Run. The financial crisis, the deepest bear market since the Great Depression, and the continued growth of the emerging markets are just some of the contingencies directly affecting every portfolio in the world.
To help you navigate markets and make the best investment decisions, Jeremy Siegel has updated his bestselling guide to stock market investing.
This new edition of Stocks for the Long Run answers all the important questions of today: How did the crisis alter the fi nancial markets and the future of stock returns? What are the sources of long-term economic growth? How does the Fed really impact investing decisions? Should you hedge against currency instability?
Stocks for the Long Run, Fifth Edition, includes brand-new coverage of:
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
Siegel provides an expert’s analysis of the most important factors behind the crisis; the state of current stability/instability of the financial system and where the stock market fits in; and the viability of value investing as a long-term strategy.
CHINA AND INDIA
The economies of these nations are more than one-third larger than they were before the 2008 financial crisis; you'll get the information you need to earn long-term profits in this new environment.
Learn all there is to know about the nature, size, and role of diversifi cation in today’s global economy; Siegel extends his projections of the global economy until the end of this century.
Can stocks still provide 6 to 7 percent per year after inflation? This edition forecasts future stock returns and shows how to determine whether the market is overvalued or not.
Essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the forces that move today's markets, Stocks for the Long Run provides the most complete summary available of historical trends that will help you develop a sound and profitable long-term portfolio.
Rhythm: How to Achieve Breakthrough Execution and Accelerate Growth [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:33
2014 | EPUB | 2.37MB
A simple system to help your team execute better and faster All growing companies encounter ceilings of complexity, usually when they hit certain employee or revenue milestones. In order to burst through ceiling after ceiling and innovate with growth, a company must develop a reliable system that prompts leaders to be proactive and pivot when the need arises.
Drawing on his experience as a successful serial entrepreneurial and speaker, author Patrick Thean demonstrates how to identify the signs of setbacks before they occur, track those signs, and make adjustments to keep your plan on track and accelerate growth. Thean introduces a simple system to empower everyone in your company to be focused, aligned, and accountable--a three-rhythm process for effective execution:
- Think Rhythm: A rhythm of strategic thinking to keep your teams focused and working on the future of your business.
- Plan Rhythm: A rhythm of planning that will allow you to choose the right priorities and get your departments or divisions aligned with those priorities.
- Do Rhythm: A rhythm of executing your plan and making effective and timely adjustments every week.
Thean's process applies to any growing business and ensures that your organization gets into the habit of achieving success, week after week, quarter after quarter, year after year.
The Retail Doctor's Guide to Growing Your Business [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:31
2010 | EPUB + MOBI | 1.63/1.86MB
It's one of the toughest economies in years, but don't fear-the doctor is in
Are you among the thousands of retailers frustrated by market challenges and looking for ways to take control of your business? Are you looking for the advice of an expert consultant, but unable to spend the money? Then The Retail Doctor's Guide to Growing Your Business is for you.
- By providing a step-by-step approach to evaluate your current business practices, The Retail Doctor offers professional guidance
- Redesign your organizational structure
- Reap the maximum returns on your investment
- Keep your business financially healthy
- Following the advice in these pages will help you devise a sound strategy to accomplish your goals and outperform your competitors. You'll also gain clear insight into all areas of human resource management, sales training, merchandising methods, and marketing.
While your competitors are looking for a magic bullet to solve their problems, with The Retail Doctor's Guide to Growing Your Business, you can be making changes that will guarentee enormous returns and financial success.
7 Tenets of Taxi Terry [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:29
2014 | EPUB | 0.67MB
Inspired by the Ideas and Insight of Taxi Terry…The Best Guide to Customer Service You Will Ever Read
No matter who you are, what you do, where you work, or how much money you make, you can learn a lot from a cab driver--especially when it is Taxi Terry, a successful self-starting entrepreneur who combines passion with effort and skill to create distinction in his job and in his life.
Bestselling author and Hall of Fame speaker Scott McKain was so impressed by Terry's joyful approach to customer service, he incorporated the driver's inspiring personal philosophy and uplifting advice into his business speeches at corporate events--with stunning success.
These are the 7 Tenets of Taxi Terry:
- Set high expectations--then, exceed them!
- Delivering what helps the customer . . . helps you.
- Customers are people--so, personalize the experience.
- Think logically--then act creatively and consistently.
- Make the customer the star of your show!
- Help your customers to come back for more.
- Creating joy for your customer will make your work--and life--more joyful!
If you want to be more than just a job title, Taxi Terry will inspire you to be better at what you do and become the best in your field. You'll find step-by-step strategies for each of the seven tenets, with actionable solutions that can be applied to an endless range of workplace problems. Also, with a special focus on "internal customers"--the people you rely on every day within your own company--the book addresses one of the most destructive issues in business today: employee disengagement. Using the same techniques that win over customers, you can actively engage coworkers, clients, and colleagues more effectively. In other words, everybody wins.
7 Tenets of Taxi Terry is your road map to an extraordinary journey--full of wonderful encounters and mutually rewarding experiences--that will take you anywhere you want to go.
Accounting for Small Business Owners [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:27
2015 | EPUB | 4.6MB
All the financial accounting a small business will ever need
Owning and running a small business can be complicated. On top of developing, marketing and selling your product or service, you've got to be prepared to handle the money that's coming in, pay your employees, track expenditures, consider your stock options, and much more.
Accounting for Small Business Owners covers the entire process of establishing solid accounting for your business and common financial scenarios, and will show you how to:
- Set up and run your business
- Manage and sell your product or service
- Perform a month-end balancing of accounts
Packed with definitions of basic accounting terms, sample accounting statements, and a wealth of tips and tricks to simplify the accounting process, Accounting for Small Business Owners has everything you need to get the job done!
Stock Market Investing for Beginners [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:26
2013 | EPUB | 2.93MB
Learn how to invest your money the smart way.
All forms of investment share a common purpose: to provide for a better future. Stock market investing is one of the best tools you can use to build a more secure financial foundation for you and your family. However, for those of us who aren't professional stockbrokers, the process of stock market investing can seem complex and bewildering. Stock Market Investing for Beginners will arm you with the information you need to understand the basics of stock market investing, and start taking control of your financial future. Stock Marketing Investing for Beginners will take the frustration and intimidation out of stock market investing, so that you can make the investments that are right for your financial goals.
Stock Market Investing for Beginners gives you the tools to start investing wisely and successfully, with:
- Straightforward explanation of the fundamentals of stock market investing
- 10 key stock marketing investing questions answered
- 5 strategies for picking winners
- Useful advice on buying, selling, owning, and diversifying
- Invaluable tips on building your financial portfolio through stock marketing investing
The sooner you start investing, the better off you will be. Stock Market Investing for Beginners will show you how to make a small investment now, for a better tomorrow.
Lead the Work: Navigating a World Beyond Employment [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:24
2015 | EPUB + PDF | 2.47/1.89MB
A detailed look at the evolution of employment and its far-reaching implications.
Lead the Work takes an incisive look at the evolving nature of work, and how it's affecting management and productivity at the organizational level. Where getting things done once meant assigning it to an employee, today's leaders are increasingly at risk if they fail to recognize that talent can float into and out of an organization. Long-term employment has given way to medium- or short-term employment, marking the first step in severing the bond that once fixed an individual inside an organization. Getting work done by means other than an employee was once considered a fringe event, but now leading organizations are accepting and taking advantage of the notion that talent has shown itself to be mutable. This book explores this phenomenon in detail and provides a new roadmap to help managers navigate this new environment.
The workplace has undergone many changes over the years, but the emerging trend away from traditional employment represents a massive shift that has profound implications for the business model of every organization, large or small. This book describes how management is changing, and how managers must adapt to survive.
- Examine the dispersed organization and the changing nature of employment
- Learn how work is becoming impermanent and individualized
- Find new strategies for managing and leading
- Get up to speed on the decision science for the new era
Workplaces evolve like biological beings; only the strong survive, and it's the competitive edge that ensures continued success. Lead the Work describes the new landscape, and shows you how to adapt and thrive.
The Hardware Startup: Building Your Product, Business, and Brand [EPUB]
13 August 2015, 04:22
2015 | EPUB | 5.9MB
Thanks to the decreasing cost of prototyping, it's more feasible for professional makers and first-time entrepreneurs to launch a hardware startup. But exactly how do you go about it? This book provides the roadmap and best practices you need for turning a product idea into a full-fledged business.
Written by three experts from the field, The Hardware Startup takes you from idea validation to launch, complete with practical strategies for funding, market research, branding, prototyping, manufacturing, and distribution. Two dozen case studies of real-world startups illustrate possible successes and failures at every stage of the process.
- Validate your idea by learning the needs of potential users
- Develop branding, marketing, and sales strategies early on
- Form relationships with the right investment partners
- Prototype early and often to ensure you're on the right path
- Understand processes and pitfalls of manufacturing at scale
- Jumpstart your business with the help of an accelerator
- Learn strategies for pricing, marketing, and distribution
- Be aware of the legal issues your new company may face
Managing Organizations and People, Modular Edition [PDF]
13 August 2015, 04:19
2005 | PDF | 11.09MB
Managing Organizations and People is a collection of nine case modules. Each module contains five cases on a particular topic in management, such as leadership. There are 57 cases for courses in management, organizational behavior, and human resource management. Each five case modular covers a key management topic such as strategy, organizational design, managing diversity. Instructors can select as many or as few case modules as they want, include other exercises, and their own material to build a supplement tailored fit to their course. These cases were carefully selected for their relevance and student interest, covering a broad range of topics and scenarios by experienced management instructors, Paul Buller and Randall Schuler. All cases have been class tested and case notes are available for all.
The Economics of Uncertainty [TTC Video]
13 August 2015, 03:44
Course No 5523 | M4V, AVC, 2000 kbps, 640x360 | AAC, 128 kbps, 2 Ch | 24x30 mins | + PDF Guidebook | 11.13 GB
Economies are deeply complex systems. The global marketplace—even national, state and local economies—involve many economic actors behaving in rational and irrational ways, sustaining a dizzying array of interconnected activity. Because of the number of participants involved in this global exchange, the unpredictability of their actions, and the sheer variety of possible actions, some degree of economic uncertainty is inevitable.
In one of the most dramatic displays of economic uncertainty in our times, a wave of toxic loans almost brought down the American financial system in 2008-2009, and with it jobs and savings. Few experts forecast this catastrophe, which stands as a lesson in the power of economic forces to defy our predictions. This event may have been exceptional, but every day we are all at the mercy of economic uncertainty in matters such as these:
- Stock market: Although the stock market has a long-term upward trend, short-term volatility can wipe out a large fraction of an investor’s wealth in a single day.
- Careers: No job is safe from the constant assault of domestic competition, offshoring, innovation, downsizing, government regulation, and other factors.
- Insurance: The types of insurance products have skyrocketed to the point that you could easily spend all of your earnings to cover possible disasters.
- Retirement: Is your retirement secure if you live to be 100? What if you suffer a debilitating chronic disease? How will your nest egg fare if inflation soars?
Uncertainty also plagues us in smaller ways. For example, everyone is familiar with rising prices, but the Internet now makes it possible for online shoppers to be charged more based on their buying history, adding a new level of unpredictability to pricing. And anytime you hire someone for a service—from roofing to dentistry—you face the principal-agent problem, in which the person hired may take unethical advantage of your lack of expertise.
Indeed, these large and small risks are so pervasive that it is all too easy to conclude that nothing can be done. But economic uncertainty is like the weather: you can’t stop storms from happening, but understanding how and why they happen allows you to be prepared. In the same way, economic uncertainty is beyond our control, but we’re in a much better position to respond if we know what’s happening and why.
In 24 practical and empowering half-hour lectures, The Economics of Uncertainty takes the mystery and dread out of uncertainty, giving you the tools to deal with risk in every phase of your life. Your guide is Professor Connel Fullenkamp, an acclaimed economist and award-winning teacher at Duke University, where he is Professor of the Practice and Director of Undergraduate Studies in Duke’s nationally ranked Economics Department.
Deepen Your Knowledge of Economics
Gearing his presentation to novices as well as those with a background in micro- and macro-economics, Professor Fullenkamp shows that the study of uncertainty sheds light on a wide range of phenomena, including:
- financial markets
- business cycles
- inflation and deflation
- free trade
- strategic thinking
- career development
- family financial planning
The course also introduces fundamental ideas in probability, statistics, and game theory that give deep insight into the world of risk and require only high-school level mathematics. In addition, the critical thinking skills you acquire in The Economics of Uncertainty have broad applications beyond economics. For example, the decision tree approach to problem solving, presented in Lecture 7, can come to the rescue whenever you need to find the optimum path to any goal, whether it is selecting your next vacation destination or choosing the best college options for your child.
Enjoy the Expertise of a Personal Advisor
Governments and large financial institutions rely on teams of experts to steer them through the perilous waters of uncertainty. In The Economics of Uncertainty, Professor Fullenkamp serves as your personal advisor, explaining in detail how uncertainty works and providing valuable tips such as these:
- Think critically: Knowing the two types of probability—frequency-based and subjective—helps you judge the claims of people who appeal to probability to convince you to take a particular action.
- Weigh risk vs. benefit: When you have to choose between risky alternatives, start from the least risky choice and decide how much extra risk you can tolerate for a given amount of increased benefit.
- Mix it up: Since you can’t negotiate prices when shopping online, be unpredictable. Don’t always take the first price you’re offered. Put some items in your shopping cart and then log off without buying them.
- Cultivate your career: Companies thrive by having a comparative advantage over their competitors. Do the same in your job by identifying what you do better than most people. Then cultivate that strength.
Learn How to Survive and Thrive
The trick to surviving and thriving in an uncertain economy is to know the sources of risk and how much of a threat they pose. It also helps to have a guide as experienced, eloquent, and engaging as Professor Fullenkamp, who, in his consulting work, has designed and led training courses for bankers and government officials for the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C. With The Economics of Uncertainty, it is your turn to experience his fascinating seminars, covering topics such as these:
- Black swans: Popularized by best-selling author and risk analyst Nassim Taleb, a black swan is a rare, baffling event with great impact. Professor Fullenkamp analyzes the 2008 financial crisis in light of this intriguing theory.
- Asymmetric information: Often one party in a transaction has a monopoly on information—for example, in a used car sale. Discover how this problem affects every sector of the economy through adverse selection and moral hazard.
- Compensation: Getting a job done well is often a matter of how the payment is made and what performance incentives are offered. Evaluate the risks and rewards of several approaches to compensation contracts.
- Gambling: Even if you’ve never bought a lottery ticket or set foot in a casino, you gamble every day. Learn how to address economic decisions with a seasoned gambler’s knack for separating good bets from bad.
One of the most important lessons about uncertainty is that it’s built into the world. At times, the economy may seem like it’s careening out of control, but we are simply living through the fluctuating uncertainties that have always been with us. There’s no reason to despair, since uncertainty is a phenomenon that can be understood and managed. “Knowledge is power,” says an old proverb. After taking this invaluable course, you’ll have the essential background to manage your economic life toward a more secure future.
- Man, Nature, and Economic Uncertainty
- Turning Uncertainty into Risk
- Five Ways to Face the Unknown
- Probability: Frequency or Belief?
- How We Misjudge Likelihood and Risk
- The Reward in Risk
- Decision Science Tools
- Gambling Economics
- Game Theory: Reveal or Conceal?
- Adverse Selection: Hiding in Plain Sight
- Moral Hazard: Whom Do You Trust?
- The Principal-Agent Problem: When Mice Play
- Compensation Traps
- Caring, Sharing, and Risk Bearing
- Mayhem! Insurance Protection
- Uncertainty in the Numbers
- The Business Cycle's Wheel of Fortune
- The Danger of Inflation
- Extreme Markets
- Regulation, Innovation, Excess
- Global Trade in Employment
- No Limits to Growth
- Hedging Business and Personal Risks
- Stress Testing Your Finances
Foundations of Economic Prosperity [TTC Video]
13 August 2015, 03:28
Course No 5642 | MP4, MPEG4, 818 kbps, 426x320 | AAC, 96 kbps, 2 Ch | 24x30 mins | 4.81GB
Prosperity has transformed the world. Defined as the ability to afford goods and services beyond basic necessities, prosperity is now a way of life for most residents of developed countries—so commonplace that few people realize what a rare and recent phenomenon it is.
A mere two centuries ago, most people lived at a subsistence level, in or near the edge of poverty, as the overwhelming majority had since prehistoric times. Then the Industrial Revolution began and per capita income shot up. It is still rising today.
But the story of prosperity is far from simple—or complete. Many people in the developed world fear that their children will be less prosperous than they are. Meanwhile, new economic titans such as China and Brazil enjoy year after year of rapid growth and an ever-rising standard of living. Elsewhere in the world, millions are still trapped in poverty, despite the best efforts of organizations such as the World Bank to help lift them out of it.
Fostering and sustaining economic prosperity—whether at the individual, national, or global level—is a multilayered endeavor that reaches far beyond economics into the political and social spheres. The complexity of the phenomenon raises equally complex questions:
- Why is prosperity distributed so unevenly?
- Why isn’t the path to prosperity predictable?
- What, if anything, can be done to lift more people out of poverty?
Foundations of Economic Prosperity gives you an unrivaled overview of one of the most pressing issues of our day, in 24 half-hour lectures taught by Professor Daniel W. Drezner of the prestigious Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Professor Drezner takes you behind the headlines and into the debates to dispel some common myths about prosperity and get at deeper truths.
In this stimulating, wide-ranging course, Professor Drezner shows that achieving prosperity involves more than economics. Psychology, sociology, political science, and history also come into play. By taking this broad view, he leads you to fundamental insights about how the modern world works and a deeper understanding of the functioning of the U.S., European, Chinese, and other major economies, as well as an appreciation for the special problems faced by underdeveloped nations.
Mysteries and Myths of Prosperity
Foundations of Economic Prosperity begins with an explanation of basic economic concepts. These are then applied to an increasingly wider sphere, covering prosperity on individual, national, and global scales. Noting that prosperity is surprisingly difficult to understand, Professor Drezner addresses some of the mysteries that surround the subject, including these:
- Why England? The Industrial Revolution started in England, but scholars disagree about why, since other nations were also primed for change. Was England’s position in world politics the key factor? Or its institutions? One theory argues that the distinctive demography of the British gave them a crucial edge.
- Riddle of the two Koreas: Few nations vary so radically in prosperity as North and South Korea. Yet both have the same natural resources, ethnicity, and culture. For the first 25 years of their existence, both countries showed remarkably similar growth patterns. What caused them to diverge so dramatically?
- Easterlin paradox: A controversial finding by economist Richard Easterlin shows that there is no correlation between increasing prosperity and happiness in the developed world. How accurate is this conclusion? Does the effect change with levels of affluence? How much happiness can money buy?
In his quest to uncover the principles that guide the accelerating improvement of material life, Professor Drezner also refutes widely believed myths about prosperity, among them:
- Myth—China is prosperous: China is economically powerful, but the view that it is prosperous is mistaken. By several different standards, China is still a developing country, ranking with nations such as Jamaica, Turkmenistan, and Belarus in per capita income, health, education, and other measures of prosperity.
- Myth—Character is all: While individual behavior matters a great deal, people can’t entirely control their own economic destiny. National and global conditions matter. For example, Steve Jobs could not have built Apple Computer in a country that did not offer educational opportunities and a technology infrastructure.
- Myth—Prosperity is self-sustaining: The idea that once achieved, prosperity is self-sustaining is a misconception. Many factors can derail prosperity, from pandemics to financial crises. Professor Drezner uses Argentina as a case study of a once-prosperous nation that went into a prolonged economic decline.
Successes and Failures
Foundations of Economic Prosperity follows dozens of case histories that illustrate what works and doesn’t work in the drive to increase economic growth. A superb storyteller, Professor Drezner reaches back to examples such as the statue-building culture of Easter Island that prospered centuries ago, until its mammoth public-works effort destroyed the island’s ecosystem—a cautionary tale to all developed societies. In another lesson from the past, Professor Drezner describes the economic policy called mercantilism that trapped European powers in growth-killing trade practices from the 16th to 18th centuries.
You will also learn about the following intriguing examples of prosperity won or lost:
- Financial bubbles: The Dutch tulip mania in 1637 saw the value of a single tulip bulb rise to 45 times Holland’s per capita income. The price soon crashed in a boom/bust scenario that has been replayed many times, for instance in the “dot com” bubble in 1999–2000 and the housing bubble that led to the 2008 financial crisis.
- Globalization: The trend toward an integrated world economy is not a recent phenomenon. The era of globalization that started in the 1850s and ended with World War I brought far more dramatic changes than those seen today—in communication, transportation, productivity growth, and financial innovation.
- Politics versus prosperity: After the breakup of the Soviet Union, many economists predicted a bright economic future for Ukraine—because of its well-educated workforce, heavy industry, and productive farmland. But Ukraine did not do well. The missteps made by its politicians illustrate the enormous power of the state to get things wrong.
Prosperity Tips You Can Use
How can individuals capitalize on long-term trends in the growth and distribution of prosperity? Professor Drezner—whose experience extends beyond academia to include positions with the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the RAND Corporation, as well as extensive international travel and consulting—is full of insight on this question. He suggests, for example, that developments since 1980 underscore the increasing importance of human capital over physical capital—the value gained from investing in people over physical assets. Human capital is the product of education in all its forms, from elementary literacy to job training to undergraduate and graduate studies, and it is more important than ever to a person’s economic prospects.
As a start on your own road to greater prosperity, take this step to invest in an unparalleled explanation of the prerequisites to achieve it in the Foundations of Economic Prosperity.
- The Foundations of Economic Prosperity
- Does Economic Prosperity Make You Happy?
- Varieties of Entrepreneurship
- Individual Prosperity—The Developed World
- Individual Prosperity—The Developing World
- Foundations of National Prosperity
- Perils to National Prosperity
- Political Foundations of Prosperity
- Mysteries of the Industrial Revolution
- Sources of Poverty
- Reducing Poverty with Economic Development
- National Prosperity in the Developing World
- National Prosperity in the Developed World
- Can Prosperity Be Lost?
- Inequality and Prosperity
- Globalization and Global Prosperity
- Great Powers and Global Prosperity
- The Washington versus the Beijing Consensus
- Political Challenges to Global Prosperity
- Financial Challenges to Global Prosperity
- Will the Developed World Stagnate?
- Global Prosperity and the Environment
- Ideological Challenges to Global Prosperity
- The Ethics of Global Prosperity
Meaning from Data: Statistics Made Clear [TTC Video]
13 August 2015, 03:19
Course No 1487 | AVI, XviD, 510 kbps, 368x256 | MP3, 128 kbps, 2 Ch | 24x30 mins | + PDF Guidebook | 3.69GB
Who was the greatest baseball hitter of all time? How likely is it that a poll is correct? Is it smart to buy last year's highest-performing stock? Which hospital has the best outcome for a given procedure? When is it a good idea to buy a product's extended warranty?
These questions all involve the interpretation of statistics, as do a surprising number of other mysteries, including: Is the "hot hand" among sports players real? How can you tell if Shakespeare is the probable author of a newly discovered poem? What is a guilt-free way to get someone to admit to cheating? And, how does a tax assessor calculate the market value of a house?
Meaning from Data: Statistics Made Clear is your introduction to a vitally important subject in today's data-driven society. In 24 half-hour lectures, you will explore the principles and methods that underlie the study of statistics. You have probably heard such terms as mean, median, percentile, quartile, statistically significant, and bell curve, and you may have a rough idea of what they mean. This course sharpens your understanding of these and scores of other statistical concepts and shows how, properly used, they can extract meaning from data.
Become Statistically Savvy
These challenging yet accessible lectures assume no background in mathematics beyond basic algebra. While most introductory college statistics courses stress technical problem solving and plugging data into formulae, this course focuses on the logical foundations and underlying strategies of statistical reasoning, illustrated with plenty of examples. Professor Michael Starbird walks you through the most important equations, but his emphasis is on the role of statistics in daily life, giving you a broad overview of how statistical tools are employed in risk assessment, college admissions, drug testing, fraud investigation, and a host of other applications.
Professor Starbird is a master at conveying concepts through examples. Some of these include:
- When is a Lottery not a Lottery? When it is not truly random. The 1969 Vietnam War draft lottery assigned young draft-age men a ranking for induction based on their birthdays, which were placed in capsules and drawn from a container, supposedly at random. But by computing the statistical correlation for the order-of-draw, it's clear that a nonrandom variable was at play. The most likely explanation is that the capsules with the dates were not thoroughly mixed.
- The Birthday Challenge: What is the probability that out of 50 random people, two of them share the same birthday? The chances are much higher than most people think.
- The Chicken Soup Method: How can 1,000 randomly chosen people serve as a predictor for the behavior of hundreds of millions of voters? This is the essence of a political poll, and its effectiveness should be no more surprising than the fact that that a single taste of chicken soup is enough to predict the overall saltiness of the batch, whether the batch is in a cup or a giant vat.
- Beware of Fallacious Reasoning: At the O. J. Simpson murder trial, Simpson's lawyer Johnnie Cochran countered evidence that Simpson had beat his wife with a statistic that only 1 in 1,000 wife beaters go on to kill their wives. Therefore, Cochran argued, there was only a 1 in 1,000 chance that Simpson went on to commit the murder. Professor Starbird discusses the fallacies in this argument, including the fact that a wife was actually murdered in this case, so the relevant question should be: What is the probability that she had previously been beaten?
- Who Really Won the 1860 Presidential Election? Establishing the will of the people in an election can be tricky, especially when three or more candidates are involved. Professor Starbird shows how the results of the four-way presidential race of 1860 can be interpreted as giving victory to each of three candidates, depending on the voting scheme employed. Abraham Lincoln won according to the rules in place, but given other equally valid rules, the victor—and history—would have been very different.
Statistics Is Everywhere
Statistical information is truly everywhere. You can't look at a newspaper without seeing statistics on virtually every page. You can't talk about the weather forecast without invoking statistics. Statistics obviously arises in business and social science but even enters the arts in analyzing manuscripts. And you'd better not go to a casino without understanding statistics. "It's really harder to find somewhere where statistics isn't important than to find the places where it is," says Professor Starbird.
- Describing Data and Inferring Meaning
- Data and Distributions—Getting the Picture
- Inference—How Close? How Confident?
- Describing Dispersion or Measuring Spread
- Models of Distributions—Shapely Families
- The Bell Curve
- Correlation and Regression—Moving Together
- Probability—Workhorse for Inference
- Samples—The Few, The Chosen
- Hypothesis Testing—Innocent Until
- Confidence Intervals—How Close? How Sure?
- Design of Experiments—Thinking Ahead
- Law—You’re the Jury
- Democracy and Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem
- Election Problems and Engine Failure
- Sports—Who’s Best of All Time?
- Risk—War and Insurance
- Real Estate—Accounting for Value
- Misleading, Distorting, and Lying
- Social Science—Parsing Personalities
- Quack Medicine, Good Hospitals, and Dieting
- Economics—“One” Way to Find Fraud
- Science—Mendel’s Too-Good Peas
- Statistics Everywhere
Business Statistics [TTC Video]
13 August 2015, 02:59
AVI, 399 kbps, 640x480 | MP3, 128 kbps, 2 Ch | 16x45 mins | + PDF Guidebook | 2.83GB
In our tightly wired world, business executives make decisions under pressure. Almost always, these decisions must be made with less than complete information. This course is about how to effectively use data that is currently available (or can be obtained within a reasonable time frame and cost) to improve business decision-making. We will use business examples from functional areas such as finance, marketing, human resources, and operations to illustrate the role of data analysis in decision making. This course is not designed to be a dry sleepy-time set of abstract, mathematical lectures. My goal is to make statistics come alive in the context of life and in the context of real business problems demanding solution.
Quantitative methods such as statistical analysis must not be viewed as the be-all and end-all of decision making. The vital role that seasoned business intuition plays in effective decision making can not be overemphasized. Nevertheless, analytical techniques are a central part of many decisions. In fact, we illustrate in this course how statistics and probability can effectively work together with managerial intuition in business problem solving.
The advent of personal computer statistical software that readily generates visual representations of data and performs sophisticated analyses enables a manager to concentrate on the meaning of data. The burden of computation has largely been eliminated, and business people are now free to focus on probing issues and searching for creative solutions. In this course, we illustrate the use of computer-generated output that promotes visualization of data.
"Students tell me that statistics was obscure and inaccessible for them as undergraduates. On the first day of class, they enter my MBA course on Statistics and Data Analysis prepared for the worst. Fortunately, I am often able to help them build intuition for statistics, appreciate how the content can be applied and actually enjoy the experience.
Whatever, previous experience you have had with statistics (if any), our main objective will be to make the content useful to you in business decision-making and relevant to decisions we all make in everyday life."
- Overview of Probability
- Descriptive Statistics
- Probability Concepts
- Combining Event Probabilities
- Simulating Business Situations
- Random Variables
- The Binomial and Poisson Distribution
- The Normal Distribution
- Sampling Distributions and Estimators
- The Central Limit Theorem
- Confidence Intervals
- Confidence Intervals for Other Parameters
- Hypothesis Testing
- Simple Linear Regression
- The Validity and Usefulness of a Regression
- Introduction to Multiple Regression